Bitcoin Price Predictions - Future Bitcoin Value for 2020
Mining Difficulty - Bitcoinity.org
6 Price Predictions for Bitcoin in 2020 by Industry Experts
Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020
We would rather be ruined than changed. -W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757 Secured physical gold – $18 913 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479 Bitcoin – $148 990 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484 Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under) Global shares – 22.0% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under) Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.7% International bonds – 9.4% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 7.7% Bitcoin – 8.4% Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March. The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year. [Chart] The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017. [Chart] There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf). A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains. As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here. Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. A moving azimuth: falling spending continues Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. [Chart] The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending. This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month. [Chart] There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile. Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations. Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June. These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey. This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably. A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades. I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
An 'adjusted income' approach - stripping out the capital gains components of Vanguard funds to reach an estimate of underlying income generation, both across the entire investment period, and during the sharpest low of the Global Financial Crisis
A long-term asset class approach - relying on long-term historical data on averages of the income produced by various asset classes
A 'tax method' approach - this derives an income estimate as a percentage of the portfolio by drawing on taxable investment income totals from tax return records
Simple historical rolling average - this is a rolling three-year measure, based on the actual distributions record of the portfolio
Average distribution rate approach - this method uses a long-term average of annual distributions received as a percentage of the total portfolio since 1999
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks. Developing new navigation tools Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns. This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets. In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years. Mapping the distribution estimates The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come. [Chart] Some observations on these findings can be made. The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on. Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome. Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations. Central estimates of the line of position This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range. I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence. My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure. None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data. These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years. As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive. Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9% Summary The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions. Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well. Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias. This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface. Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half. With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real. Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change? The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).
Current situation: We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment). For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined). There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip. I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June. Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/ There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt. Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!< Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA. On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%. On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%. On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min. My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much. Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post. References: Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap. Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time Credits to people who assisted the analysis: kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th. babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movement
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).
Current situation: We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment). https://preview.redd.it/ysnv85wh0lz41.jpg?width=597&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e130b077f9dc2fc9d02666ef89e6f9249a05f535 For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined). There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip. I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June. Bitcoin 2nd halving evidence: 2nd halving falls between the 5th and the 19th adjustment so it is only reflected on the 3rd of Aug difficulty adjustment ( -5.43%). See the dip on the 3rd of August. Price fell from $600 to $533 about 11% drop. Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!< Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA. On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%. On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%. On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min. My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much. References: Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap. Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time Credits to people who assisted the analysis: kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th. babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
This was written for a different group /stocks it got deleted so hopefully this time it works ! Disclaimer I dont want to sell you or recommend anything ! Just my expierence and little help so enjoy. If you want to ask me anything feel free, I try so answer everything. This article is meant to be a small guide that helps you to find your way. Its based on my experience and knowledge, I gained throughout the years. Iam by far no professional. Iam just a guy who loves to invest. If you are new and have few grands to invest this article might help you. My motivation to write this article was because when I turned 20 I got a small loan of 1 milli.... just few grands from my parents plus the savings I made from working. For me it was clear that I want to invest them. I always liked the idea making money and not really working for it! (Spoiler its kinda true and kinda not) So I sum up few steps which will helped me to orientate and maybe help you to make your first investement Step one 1. Where I can Invest?! You can basicly invest in everything. They are infinite options but I just cover up few topics. They are 5 investments I would like to adress.
Krypto n+1. art, old cars, drugs?! (Don’t do or sell drugs pls!)
Stocks (my fav.) I love stocks. I love understanding what the company’s plans are and where they are heading. They are 3 different types of investment strategies.
Short term (daily) That’s usually daily trading. That means you invest and sell on a daily basis. If your not a expert it can frustrating and the chances that you will lose is high. Many people forget that you have to pay taxes and fees so even if you for example invest 1.000 and sell for 1.050 within 20 min. You will have to pay some fees and taxes and with luck, you are where you started. It only makes sense when you invest a lot, otherwise it makes no sense and to be honest I don’t know any person which makes profit with it.
Difficulty: Hard Stress Lvl: High Risk: Medium/High Profit: Usualy bad Investement: Medium
Mid term (6month – 1 year+) You buy some stocks for a longer period of time and hope it will go up soon.
This investment is much easier and less risky than short term. You see a stock going up and up so you invest 5k and hope you can ride a little on this upwards trend. Its fairly easy but you have to keep an eye on the market. A good example is VW it dropped because it has some Image problems. Thats a chance to invest! It will most likely to recover because its the biggest automarker in the world and it did. It happend 1000 times and normaly big companies dont fail they are exception but without risk you dont get anywhere Difficulty: Medium Stress: Medium Risk: Medium Profit: Good Investment: Low
Long term ( 1-2years – 10 years+) Means you want to invest for a long time you are not only interested in making a quick buck but making a slow and steady progress. You are not interested if the stock goes up or down but you are more interested how much divendend they pay. Usualy they go up very slowly but steady. A good example for this type of stock is Royal Dutch (shell) it has ist up and downs but compared to other stocks ist stable. The dividend is 6% which is insanly good no other big company will pay you that every year. You invest 10.000€ and get every year 600€ which means a holiday for free. Also the work is very little, you only have to check the stocks every few weeks/month You wont get rich but its better than having it in the bank.
Difficulty: Easy Stress: Low Risk: Low Profit: Low Investment: Low-Medium Before you invest check the company read the news and get a good overview. I have to admit Iam a fanboy at heart. When a stock of one of my fav. company’s has potential and it does make sense to invest it feels like buying tickets for my favorite Rockband. You support and cheer them on and if they grow you grow with them. BUUUUUUT don’t get my wrong never buy stocks just because you like the company or they have a cool name. All in all Stocks are a great Investment! Real Estate If you want to invest in houses it’s a very save and profitable investment but it depends on your area and country you are coming from. In Germany most objects are overpriced right now so it wouldnt make any sense to buy some. In generell the more money you have the better. They will will be much more people who can afford an cheap flat/condo than the other way around. So expensive objects are better! The optimum is always a shitty apartment in a very good area. Also buying objects in bad areas cause lots of trouble with tenant. Crazy families who refuse to pay, messy people etc. this can end in a stressful situation so beware of that. If you are already rich af than buy propreties Example I went once to an auction and most apartments are sold for double the estimated value. It would take ages (20+ years) to get your investment back. So beware of your market situation. Difficulty: Easy Stress: Usualy low/medium Risk: Low Profit: Medium Investment: High Options Options are basicly betting that a stock with go up or down. You can bet on nearly everything. You can make lot of money very quick and lose everything even quicker. For me option trading is gambling with few extra steps. The difference is you can lose more than you invest. They are cases where people invest 1000€ and lose -120.000€ because suddelny the market changed. If you have gambling problems and tendency to gamble this is absolutly not for you. You can see here (in the forum) lots of bad examples where people going full YOLO on something and lose a ton of money. They save up a little, invest in something even more risky and lose again. I know a friend who makes good money from it but he has a clear head and read many books about this topic he uses software to analyse the situation and everything and he admits that sometimes he doesnt understand what happend. Of course options are not the devils tool but I like to be the voice against it. The truth is in the middle. Iam a person who likes to understand what am I doing. After reading and learning about it, for more than a year I was more confused than before. It is probably because Iam to stupid for it, so I gave it up and moved on. Options are not for me Difficulty: very hard (at least for me) Stress: high Risk: low - very risky Profit: It can be everything Investment: low
Start-ups are also a great business opportunity. I was lucky enough to invest once a little bit into a upcoming company from my firend. He showed me his company and the plans for the future. I already helped him with few shows and stuff so I knew how everything worked. The biggest bullshit I ever saw are the analyse prediction of the future sales. During the last few years I saw few of them and they all predicted that the company will make an absurd amount of money. It looked like high cool project all shiny and with big numbers. To be honest I dont even know who pay these people to make such bullshit predictions, seriously. (as you can see I love talking from my life so forgive me my dear) Long story short I still invested because I understood their model. They existed and already made great progress. I made 50% profit in 3 years. I am still very happy and greatful to had such good chance to invest and would do it again. They biggest question is how do I find such chances ? Tell people you are intersted to invest maybe a friend of you will start an company and you can invest or help you to find such a opprtunity. I went to many start up meetings and talk about a lot with my friends. They dont want to hear it but I tell them anyway and if there is a chance they will call me. Few Tipps: - Look for already existing companys - Most companys give you a very good inside look before you invest! If not watch out they hide something. - Try to understand what they are doing and where they are heading - Look what the will offer you for your money! Difficulty: Medium/hard Stress: Medium/low Risk: Medium/High Profit: Good/Very good Investment: From Low to high
Boy oh boy where to start. I heard to many experts saying yeah krypto thats future boyyyyyy I invested everything BOYYYYYYY and in few month I will be rich BOIIIIII. I heard this story so often that Iam allgeric to it now. This irregulated mess based purly on speculations wasnt anything form me. I didnt invest a cent into it and had lots of chances when bitcoin was 300-500 €. It didnt simply fit into my portfolio. It had no function for me. You could pay for your drugs in the deep web and some hipster pizzerias accepted it but in generell it had no function. So investing into kryptos is just speclutions it has no real fundation what I like. My friends who invested early made a ton of money but all the people on the Hypetrain crashed. Difficulty: I dont know Stress: Depends how much storys you make about it on Instagra´m Risk: Over 9000 Profit: It can be everything from super high to low in just few days Investment: What ever you want, if this is still to expensive for you, make your own coin and hope some Idiot buys it! Now you know my knowledge ehh more like my opionen on few things now its time for……. Step. 2. Get a rough overview Back than I didn’t know where to start so I asked everybody for advice like parents, friends , my parents friends, banks, forums, news etc. and got very different results. Friends and family can be a good source of information how they did it. Of course often investments are impossible to repeat because they are 20 years ago but they can give some good advice. Its nice to hear few cool stories. Example Royal Dutch shell hast wo different stocks. One based in england (B) one Dutch version (A) (explained very simple, not 100% accurate). If you purchase Royal Dutch (A) you have to pay a 15% withholding tax that you wouldnt when you buy Royal Dutch (B). Banks Banks are terrible to ask. I always had shitty experience. The lured me into meetings, only to sell some shitty investment models from which they make some good money of me or some stupid insurence. They are not interested in your loses or profits they are interested to sell you the next stupid investement from which the make money. They never keep their promises and if you loose they will cheer you up and show their new hot investement and so on and so on until you loose and they drop you. My mom works kind of in the finance sector and you wont believe home money older people lost ton of money because of this. I also found few very shady investements opportunities who would be illegal but I wont get into detail cause I dont have 100% proof for it and I also dont want to get in any trouble. As you can see Iam not big fan oft them and do not recommend! News/charts/indexes/Forums For me charts & news works the best. It’s easily so see what’s going on and gives you a great overview. The chart showed that a stock dropped 5%?! Good! Read the news/forums and find out what is going on! It’s that easy you don’t need 15 monitors and crazy software to understand what is happening. Dont make it to complicated! Have an easy overview about the market which you would like to invest. Example My parents invested around a year ago alot in Tesla. It was before Model 3 was released. Tesla had no expierence in mass production and it was clear (at least to me) that they wont have an easy start. They still made no profit and it was the first step to play with the big boys. Back than the Tesla stock was way over 300€ and it was based a lot on speculation and hype. It couldnt live up to they hype and dropped ≈ 30% - 35%.
Few points & strategies
No Emotions Never ever let your emotions guide you. Stocks are not based on a stomach feeling or any other emotion. Dont invest just because you like Elon Musk or Apple or anything. If I have a the chance to invest into one because the timing is right. Always make sure you know what you are doing. When it can wait a day, sleep a night about it and be sober! You can get sucked up into this world you will start giving a shit if you lose one grand and start digging deeper and deeper and lose sense the value of it. Stay sober and now when you have to stop. Making losses It will happend and dont freak out ! They are two options how to handle it and it depends on few things.
Sell them, you see the ship is sinking and their no possibility you can save it than sell it, It hurts but better early than it is to late. Or you find a better possibility to invest for example a start up than its also fine.
Keep it! Turning a Short/Mid-term investement into a long-term investement. Check first if the company will recover from it. For example the VW stocks dropped a lot due it scandal few years ago but it was clear that they will not go bankrupt so after a while they recover from it. Technically the market will grow infinite so after every crash they reach new heights, if you can wait that long the chances are high that you will make some profit and do not lose any money. Maybe the profit will be small but better than losing everything.
Diversity Dont put all your eggs in one basket but also dont but every egg in a different basket. Have a good mix that you can still have an overview about your investment. Dont depend on one investment something bad can always happend. Having a good mix is important some investments will go up and few will go down. Its rearly that everything will crash (expect crises). So you can sell the good one and keep the bad ones until they go up. Scams Online Stick to the basics! They are a ton of scammers online who want to show you a way to make fast money. Its mostly some MLM (multi level markting) aka Pryamide sheme, some buying and reselling some stuff from China or some weird option trading platform where pay in and your money is gone in 5 min without any trace o fit (no chance getting it back)! The Instagram advertisment is so ridiculous and I feel stupid mentioning it but hey if it wouldnt work they wouldnt exist. So please dont be this guy…. Offline I really wanted to invest and have an own start-up. I met many people and visited countless seminars. Few of them offered me to invest but it was a mostly a mess. Onced I got fooled. A friend and I meet a person who had a start up for social media. We had some meetings restaurant he paid everything for us and looked very legit. I worked 3-4 month in this start up 3-4 hours a day, even on weekends for free. Only later to find out I was the only one working in it. (My friend pulled out very early cause he wanted to focus on his PhD) They rest oft he Team did absolute nothing! All the money the company generated was based on my work. They didnt make a lot of money but around 600-800€ a month. The founder spend all the money on vacation and stuff. I never got anything. They wanted to sell me 10% of the company for 15.000€. I always said I need more inside infos, which of course I never got. So I pulled out and they went mad and threaten me to sue me. I feel to this day ashamed that I trusted them and didnt saw it. If you want get into something like this make a contract dont rely on handshakes people will tell you everything and wont keep it. I learned it the hard way Be open minded I met enough people who dont want to share with me their portfolio because they are scared that I will steal something from them. Its stupid! Talk to as many people als possible about your investment. Some amazing things can happend. I meet to many great people because of that and with some I share a 5+ years long friendship maybe we dont share the same ideas but I leanred a lot of it and sometimes I made some profit because of it! Be open ! Prediction & graphic lines When I did my first Investment (it was gold) I read every morning every article about it I could for at least a solid year. Every monring 20 min Thats rouhly 120 hours. Thats time I will never get back. It was wasted time. The news/articels predicted everything. It was a rollercoaster. I believed it in the beginning because it was new to me. It really messed me up and I spend way to much time overthinking. Its fine to see a prediction but the more extreme it is the more it will never happend. Also the trendlines are mostly worthless. I read so many people talking about the 50 day trendline or the 200 day trendline. It only idicates if a stock goes up or down but people interepte everything into it. “Oh yeah you can see the restience at 12.50 if it will drop below everbody will sell“. The next day it dropped and nothing happend. Dont believe everything in the internet. (lol) Keep it simple Dont make it to complicated you can have the best infos and charts and everything in the world and still lose everything. So dont make it to hard for yourself. THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE No depts Dont take a credit just because you know a great investment. No matter how much you could earn DO NOT TAKE A CREDIT. This can not only ruin you financily but also your family and your whole life. This is no joke! Make no depts. DO NOT MAKE FUCKING DEBTS! My Strategy It is a mixture of long term and mid-term stock investments. Its very easy I invested in: Before I buy some - Royal Dutch because of the high dividend - Deutsche Bank when the hit nearly a all time low hoping to recover (still hoping ☹ ) - Lufthansa because they bought few airlines and hopefully will grow but its not (thanks Greta !) - Tesla because they are low and made some good deals for the future. (update, sold it and made 30-35% in 6 weeks) Am I rich or making a lot of money?! Hell no! But Iam making enough to pay for my holidays and few extras. I am patient enough to sit out bad times. I never sold anything with loose and I want to keep it that way. I like having a clean record. Thanks for reading and feel free to ask my everything.
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191023(Market index 33 — Fear state)
https://preview.redd.it/folaa2ztw9u31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0aaa8476acb68252087ddf0558d293b5a9a9392 Germany Warns Of Privacy Token Usage In Money Laundering And Terrorism According to Cointelegraph, the German Federal Ministry of Finance has expressed concerns about rising use of privacy tokens due to their association with criminal activities and difficulties in tracking them. Published on Oct 19, the ministry’s “First Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing National Risk Assessment” for 2018–2019 provided analysis aimed at the identification of existing and future risks in the field of anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorism financing (TF) in Germany. Among other challenges, the report examines circulation of cryptocurrencies in the darknet for criminal purposes. State Probe Of Facebook Expands To 47 Attorneys General According to Reuters news flash, the state probe of Facebook on allegations that the company put consumer data at risk and pushed up advertising rates has expanded to attorneys general from 47 states and territories, New York Attorney General Letitia James said on Tuesday, October 22 in a statement. Bank Of Lithuania Becomes First Market Regulator To Issue Guidelines On STOs According to coinpage, Bank of Lithuania has become the first of market regulators to issue guidelines on STOs. The new guidelines are focussed on the classification of security tokens, assessing specific cases and providing recommendations related to the issue of the security tokens and also clarify on applicable legal regulation. Furthermore, enterprises planning to use the STO method will need to comply with EU and national legislation regulating capital-raising activities. TBCASoft, IBM And SoftBank Announced A Mobile Payment Blockchain Blockchain platform TBCASoft, technology behemoth IBM and telecommunications conglomerate SoftBank announced on Oct 22 a collaboration to adopt a cross-carrier telecommunications blockchain payment solution.
Encrypted project calendar（October 23, 2019）
MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 23rd at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles with the theme “Connecting the I3 Market and Experiencing Purchase and Sales Data.”BTC/Bitcoin:The WBS World Blockchain Summit (Middle East) will be held in Dubai from October 23rd to 24th.Cardano (ADA) and 1 other:23 October 2019 WBS Dubai “One of a kind gathering of 500+ curated & pre-qualified investors, CEOs, CIOs, CTOs, Heads of Blockchain, Chief Digital OfficersCloakCoin (CLOAK):23 October 2019 (or earlier) CloakCoin Competition “CloakCoin competition : solve the CloakCoin ENIGMA transaction, 3rd round.”Loom Network (LOOM):23 October 2019 Singapore Meetup “Unstack the Stack Series: Loom Network” from 6:30–8:30 PM (SST).BTGS/Bitdog:ZG.COM will open the BTGS currency and coin transfer business at 14:00 on October 23, and open the BTGS/USDT transaction pair on October 23 at 18:18.Waltonchain (WTC):23 October 2019 Transfers Suspended “$WTC deposits and withdrawals on #TaibiExchange will be suspended from 00:00 Oct 22 (UTC+8) and are estimated to resume at 15:00 Oct 23
Encrypted project calendar（October 24, 2019）
BCN/Bytecoin:Bytecoin (BCN) released the hidden amount of the Bytecoin block network on October 24.Horizen (ZEN):24 October 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.ANT/Aragon: Aragon (ANT) Aragon Network will hold the theme “DAO: ICO and DeFi next step” in Hong Kong on October 24th?DATA/Streamr DATAcoin:Streamr DATAcoin (DATA) Streamr Network Technology Exchange and Project Development Conference will be held in London on October 24th.Lisk (LSK):24 October 2019 Coding Workshop — Berlin “During this workshop you will acquire the skills to create custom transactions with the Lisk Alpha SDK using Node.js.”BTU Protocol (BTU)：24 October 2019 Africa IT Expo “Our co-founder@vidal007will be speaking at upcoming@africa_aitex[African IT Expo] held in #Rabat #Morocco on 24th of October.”Matrix AI Network (MAN)：24 October 2019 YouTube AMA YouTube AMA from 3PM, October 24 (GMT+8).Utrum (OOT)：24 October 2019 AtomicDex Listing “We are pleased to announce that Utrum coin OOT is getting listed on Komodo Platform Decentral Exchange — AtomicDEX. “
Encrypted project calendar（October 25, 2019）
ADA/Cardano:Cardano (ADA) The Ada community will host a community gathering in the Dominican Republic for the first time on October 25.Crypto.com Coin (CRO):25 October 2019 Live AMA with CEO “Live AMA with our CEO@Kris_HKon@cryptocom’s Twitter next Friday, 25 October, 11AM HKT.”GST/GSTCOIN:GSTCOIN(GST)LBank will be online GST on October 25, 2019 at 16:00 (UTC+8), open trading pair: GST/USDT, GST/ETH.
Encrypted project calendar（October 26, 2019）
KAT/Kambria:Kambria (KAT) Kambria will host the 2019 Southern California Artificial Intelligence and Data Science Conference in Los Angeles on October 26th with IDEAS.BTC/Bitcoin:CoinAgenda Global Summit will be held in Las Vegas from October 26th to 28thHorizen (ZEN):26 October 2019 (or earlier) ZEN 2.0.19 Upgrade Zen 2.0.19 upgrade at block #610000, which is expected around October 26.
Encrypted project calendar（October 27, 2019）
ICON (ICX):27 October 2019 Money 20/20 USA Event Money 20/20 USA in Las Vegas from October 27–30.
Encrypted project calendar（October 28, 2019）
LTC/Litecoin:Litecoin (LTC) 2019 Litecoin Summit will be held from October 28th to October 29th in Las Vegas, USABTC/Bitcoin:Mt.Gox changes the debt compensation plan submission deadline to October 28ZEC/Zcash:Zcash (ZEC) will activate the Blossom Agreement on October 28thStellar (XLM):28 October 2019 Protocol 12 Upgrade Vote Horizon v0.22.0 has been released, which supports Protocol 12. This gives everyone ample time to prepare for the Protocol 12 upgrade voteCelsius (CEL)and 3 others: 28 October 2019 Litecoin Summit “…The Litecoin Summit offers two fun, jam-packed days with something for everyone.”XFOC (XFOC):The IDAX platform will be online XFOC and will open the XFOC/USDT trading pair at 13:00 on October 28.MEDIUM (MDM):The IDAX platform lists MDM and will open MDM/BTC trading pairs on October 28th at 15:00.ZB/ ZB Blockchain:The “2019 Hamburg Intercontinental Dialogue Conference” hosted by ZB.com will be held from October 28th to November 9th at the Four Seasons Hotel Hamburg, Germany.BQT (BQTX)：28 October 2019 Down for Maintenance BQTX.com will be down for maintenance on the 28th of October from 7 to 12am UTC.
Encrypted project calendar（October 29, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd World Encryption Conference (WCC) will be held in Las Vegas from October 29th to 31st.ICON (ICX):29 October 2019 Decentralization “As a result, the decentralization schedule of the ICON Network has been changed from September 24, 2019 to October 29, 2019.”Ark (ARK):and 10 others 29 October 2019 WCC 2019 Second annual Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Technology event, World Crypto Conference (WCC), October 29th — October 31, 2019.Insifa (ISF):29 October 2019 Prototype Alpha “We from Insifa have decided to be more open. Our Prototype will be developed in scrum. This means new releases every two weeks.”
Encrypted project calendar（October 30, 2019）
MIOTA/IOTA:IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 30th at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on the topic “How to store data on IOTA Tangle.”TRON (TRX):30 October 2019 SFBW19 Afterparty “TRON Official SFBW19 Afterparty from 7–10:30 PM in San Francisco.”Horizen (ZEN):30 October 2019 Horizen Quarterly Update Join our first Quarterly Update on October the 30th at 5 PM UTC/ 1 PM EST. Deeper look into Engineering, BD, Marketing, and more.Aeternity (AE):30 October 2019 Hardfork “The third hardfork of the æternity Mainnet is scheduled for October 30, 2019.”Valor Token (VALOR):30 October 2019 Transaction Fees Resume “It’s September and the SMART VALOR Platform is still waiving transaction fees for all members, until October 30th!”Aragon (ANT):30 October 2019 Singapore Meetup “Aragon on DAOs and DeFi” from 6:30–8:30 PM.Kambria (KAT):30 October 2019 Outliers Hashed Awards Outliers Hashed awards from October 30–31.Ethereum Classic (ETC):30 October 2019 Cohort Demo Day “ETC Labs hosts it’s 2nd Cohort Demo Day. Learn about the companies and project being accelerated through the Ethereum Classic ecosystem.”
Encrypted project calendar（October 31, 2019）
Spendcoin (SPND):31 October 2019 (or earlier) Cross Ledger Mainnet “Cross Ledger Mainnet Release and SPND Token Swap,” during October 2019.Spendcoin (SPND):31 October 2019 (or earlier) Blkchn University Beta “Blockchain University Beta goes live,” during October 2019.Stellar (XLM):31 October 2019 (or earlier) Minor Release “We will have 6 Minor Releases in 2019; one each in February, March, May, June, August, and October.”Bitcoin SV (BSV):31 October 2019 (or earlier) BSV Conference Seoul No additional information.Seele (SEELE):31 October 2019 (or earlier) Public Network Mainne launch has been moved to Oct 31 .Howdoo (UDOO):31 October 2019 (or earlier) Howdoo Live on Huawei Howdoo begins its exciting partnership with Huawei with listing as a featured app starting in October.Chiliz (CHZ):31 October 2019 (or earlier) App Soft Launch Soft launch of Socios App by end of October.Dent (DENT):31 October 2019 (or earlier) Loyalty Program “Afterburner loyalty program launch for all 21,6 Million mobile #DENT users will be in October!”IceChain (ICHX):31 October 2019 (or earlier) Wallet Release IceChain releases wallet during October.Chiliz (CHZ):31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Partnerships New sports and new teams joining Socios (+more updates and events) will be announced in the upcoming weeks.Horizen (ZEN):31 October 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.PCHAIN (PI):31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Website No additional information.IOST (IOST):31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Game on IOST “Eternal Fafnir, a new role-playing game developed by INFUN is coming to you in Oct.”Achain (ACT)：31 October 2019 Mainnet 2.0 Launch “… The main network is officially scheduled to launch on October 31.”Mithril (MITH)：31 October 2019 Burn “MITH burn will take place on 2019/10/31 2pm UTC+8. “Aergo (AERGO)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) Aergo Lite V1.0 Release AergoLite, which brings blockchain compatibility to billions of devices using SQLite, released during October 2019.TE-FOOD (TFD)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) Complementary Product “Development of a new, complementary product with a new partner, which we hope to be launched in September-October.”Edge (DADI)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) Full Open Source Code base for the network fully open-sourced in September or October.BlockStamp (BST)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) ASIC Miner Prototype In orderr to ensure BlockStamps continued decentralization, we will release a BST ASIC miner for testing.Perlin (PERL)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) SSA Partnership “Perlin has partnered with the Singapore Shipping Association to create the International E-Registry of Ships (IERS)”Skrumble Network (SKM)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) Exchange Release “3rd dApp: Exchange Release,” during October 2019.EDC Blockchain (EDC)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) Blockchain Marketplace “As you already know, our ECRO blockchain marketplace is ready for release, and will open to the global community in October!”BlockStamp (BST)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) ASIC Miner Prototype In orderr to ensure BlockStamps continued decentralization, we will release a BST ASIC miner for testing.XinFin Network (XDCE)：31 October 2019 Homebloc Webinar “XinFin — Homebloc Webinar 2019” from 9–10 PM.Akropolis (AKRO)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) Alpha Release “Delivers the initial mainnet implementation of protocol. All building blocks will be united to one product.”Hyperion (HYN)：31 October 2019 (or earlier) Economic Model The final version of the HYN Economic Model launches in October.
Encrypted project calendar（November 1, 2019）
INS/Insolar:The Insolar (INS) Insolar wallet and the redesigned Insolar Block Explorer will be operational on November 1, 2019.VeChain (VET)：”01 November 2019 BUIDLer Reunion Party BUIDLer Reunion Party in San Francisco from 8–11 PM.uPlexa (UPX)：01 November 2019 Steadfast Storm — PoS/PoW split (Utility nodes ie. master nodes) — Upcoming Anonymity Network much like TOR — Privacy-based DApps — Reduced network fees.Enjin Coin (ENJ)：01 November 2019 MFT Binding “ICYMI: On Enjin Coin’s 2nd anniversary (November 1), Enjin MFTs will be bound to hodlers’ blockchain addresses…”Auxilium (AUX)：01 November 2019 AUX Interest Distribution Monthly interest distribution by Auxilium Interest Distribution Platform for coinholders. Also supports charity.Havy (HAVY)：01 November 2019 Token Buyback “Havy tokens buyback, Only in 1 exchange between Idex, Mercatox & Hotbit. The exchange depends on the most lower sell wall.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 2, 2019）
Kambria (KAT)：02 November 2019 VietAI Summit 2019 Kambria joins forces with VietAI for the annual VietAI Summit, with top experts from Google Brain, NVIDIA, Kambria, VietAI, and more!
Encrypted project calendar（November 4, 2019）
Stellar (XLM)：04 November 2019 Stellar Meridian Conf. Stellar Meridian conference from Nov 4–5 in Mexico City.Cappasity (CAPP)：04 November 2019 Lisbon Web Summit Lisbon Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal from November 4–7.
Encrypted project calendar（November 5, 2019）
Nexus (NXS)：05 November 2019 Tritium Official Release “Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the day Tritium changed Distributed Ledger. Yes, this is an official release date.”NEM (XEM)：05 November 2019 Innovation Forum — Kyiv NEM Foundation Council Member Anton Bosenko will be speaking in the upcoming International Innovation Forum in Kyiv on November 5, 2019.
Encrypted project calendar（November 6, 2019）
STEEM/Steem:The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.KIM/Kimcoin:Kimcoin (KIM) Bitfinex will be online at KIM on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 (UTC).
Encrypted project calendar（November 7, 2019）
XRP (XRP)： 07 November 2019 Swell 2019 Ripple hosts Swell from November 7th — 8th in Singapore.BTC/Bitcoin:Malta The A.I. and Blockchain summit will be held in Malta from November 7th to 8th.
Encrypted project calendar（November 8, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.IOTX/IoTeX:IoTex (IOTX) will participate in the CES Expo on November 08
Encrypted project calendar（November 9, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality:Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.
Encrypted project calendar（November 11, 2019）
PAX/Paxos Standard:Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference.
Encrypted project calendar（November 12, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13th
There's a conspiracy theory going around about Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH/BCC) that I think my fellow redditors should know about. TLDR: In 17.5 hours BCH will try to usurp BTC as the "true" Bitcoin and this will cause BTC prices to tank to unrecoverable levels and will have side effects on alts as well since BTC is the main pair. Technical TLDR: The conspiracy plan is that when Bitcoin locks their difficulty algorithm, a group of miners will switch to BCH in mass and pump BCH to huge levels. This will cause a panic sell of BTC and cause people to try and transfer BTC from their wallets to exchanges, but because all the miners have left and the difficulty is locked, the network will be clogged with slow and expensive transactions for the next 2 weeks, spelling the end of Bitcoin. Longer Story I'm going to assume most people here are fairly new to crypto and weren't around for all the politics and drama between /bitcoin and /btc There's a lot to understand about the interplay between difficulty algorithm changes, miner reward incentives, the politics of the pools that take a while to go into. These two articles might help catch you up:
Two weeks ago we saw something similar when BCH exploded and BTC went all the way down to $5500. This was because BTC had a difficulty algorithm change and BCH was approximately 3-4x more profitable to mine. Only Slush kept mining BTC so we'll see if they stay true to BTC this time around too. Right now we're seeing BTC, ETH, and most alts fall at the exact same time BCH rises. This might be bots reading the right indicators and buying/selling. The estimated time of the difficulty algorithm changes is on the bottom of https://fork.lol/pow/retarget Other important items to note:
Coinbase still has a bunch of BCH locked up until Jan 1
CME futures open up in December, depending on what happens in the next few days it could be more chaos as MSM and retail investors try to wrap their heads around this mess
There's always an element of "buy the rumor, sell the news" which we may be seeing right now with the run up from $1200 to $1700. But be aware, this is MASSIVE volume we're seeing for a "buy the rumor" scenario
Currently most of this volume is in Korea by a wide margin. Most speculate that this is Chinese playing on Korean exchanges after the ban, the change in volume after September is obvious
Will Thanksgiving Weekend 2017 be like Thanksgiving Weekend 2013? We'll see... Strategies
Start moving your BTC and alts off of wallets and into the right exchanges just in case the networks get clogged and you want to be ready to make a move
Go into FIAT to avoid this drama and enter in again after this passes
Go into BCH
Put some super low limit orders on BTC in case stop orders and panic selling cause another flash crash like ETH had on GDAX
FAQ What is the "dragon" being slain? Some think it's Bitcoin, the biggest crypto. Other think it's a private chat group that a bunch of Core folks are in that they self-dubbed the Dragon's Den in an self-mocking fashion Isn't this just some stupid 4chan meme? Rational brains would agree, and chances are it really is and Jihan and gang are shaking their head in disbelief that people would believe something like this. But $4B of volume on BCH is undeniable, and not something that a bunch of "trolls" can just conjure up.
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
Bitcoins hashrate & difficulty levels have been on an epic bull run
A year ago on Aug 24 2017, the mining difficulty and hash rate was considered to be off the charts high. The network was battle tested for over 8 years and the hashpower just kept increasing nearly the whole time. 1 year ago the the idea of becoming a profitable miner required a seriously major investment...I recall thinking that "this hash rate rate can't possibly continue to climb at this rate, it MUST be near the max." 3 days ago was Aug 24 2018...a full year later and the Bitcoin mining difficulty increased to 6,727,225,469,722....One year earlier it was 888,171,856,257 you see how many times it doubled in the last year? The predicted increase for the next adjustment is 7.1%!! Now a 7.1% increase of last years difficulty level is considered a lot, but 7.1% of the current level is like adding 50% to what it was a year ago. That's hard to comprehend it's so high, and this is a bear market, right? Who could be investing so heavily into mining? The power of this compounding growth is simply incredible....The money going into large mega scale Bitcoin mining is unfathomabley huge...Is there estimates or data regarding how much fiat is being invested into mining? How much fiat is going into R&D of state of the art tiny nanometer ASICs? If mining hashpower was not a relevant metric for Bitcoin price valuation a year ago, it most certainly is today and is becoming more and more relevant every 2 weeks. We are talking serious investment. To put this in perspective the last 2 difficulty increases alone, are very near equal to the entire difficulty of the network this time last year!! That's over 8.5 years of Bitcoin mining hashpower growth in just 4 weeks. Holy F'n Sh1t! Miners and venture capital have been very very busy and surprisingly it's not so overt. At this rate it will double in 3 months...would that happen in a bear market? To me this is some of the most bullish data available. I also live in Quebec and in the last few months it's become known the miners are here in a big way. This site is an excellent tool to reference the hashpower and difficulty over time. (There are several good sites, I just like this one) https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
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